Trump…

A part of me wants Trump to win.  The part that is saying that the comedy from the comedians will be outstanding and that part that wants to see what method Trump will use next to shove is foot in his mouth.  However the rational side of me is melting inside on the sheer dread that this guy may be the next POTUS because of the complete unthinking, nonsense that is spewing from that same mouth that is occupied by which ever foot is currently being munched on.

Makes me wonder at what point will Trump followers realize that Trump is an utter embarrassment to the country.

I applaud the GOP representatives like Cruz who had the balls to not ‘endorse’ this buffoon.  The vilification from the rank and file to Cruz and others, the assertion that if you are republican you MUST support the chosen one no matter how much a fool he is, reminds me of the brain washing the Chinese did during Mao and similar communist regimes, or dare I go there, the Nazi regime.  It seems the political parties in the US; ok not just the US but it’s the US politics I’m talking about today; have forgotten about their freedom of speech.  Cruz and others have the right to voice dissent.

I hope people will eventually forgive Cruz and other and realize Cruz and others were actually right in their opinions.  Mind you, this is not saying I like Cruz and some of the others either.  They are crazy in their own way.

15% Foreign Buyer Tax…

Just recently BC instituted a 15% tax for foreign buyers of property purchases.  And now you have the predictable reaction from real estate agents that it has suddenly become much harder to sell.

For one, that might be true but it is way to early to tell what the long term effect of the change will be.  All the belly aching that is happening now is just a knee jerk reaction to the new situation.

I do agree that the ‘retroactive’ nature of the new tax is a bit of a dick move by the government.  Any deal that was in negotiation should have been grandfathered in.  For something that costs this much money, suddenly having to add 15% to your already stretched budget is not going to go over well.

However, will this 15% tax really have that much an effect?  Maybe.  Hard to say at the moment.  Until other provinces adopt the same sort of tax Vancouver may see a decline in housing prices.  The problem is, is 15% loss in money a big enough deterrent for these buyers.  Vancouver is hugely Asian so there is still quite an attraction to owning here for that foreign market.  We will lose some sales to Toronto but I think we will still be influenced by the Asian market even with the new tax.  They will just factor the new tax into their pricing and we still end up with a spiraling market again.

A lot of these buyers are trying to put their wealth offshore, out of reach from their local government.  They are already losing some of that capital in our market before the tax, so buying in our market after the tax is just a different sort or loss.

My guess is that the prices here may drop to less than 15% from other markets.  Then at least the benefits of buying here versus there are about the same.  The loses will be about the same.

So a place that used to cost 1,000,000 here before the tax may sell now for 850,000 instead.  Which is still utterly out of reach for a lot of people.  However I figure that if Toronto had a similar place for 1,000,000 then the place in Vancouver would still fetch over 900,000 for the same buyer due to Vancouver’s higher attraction for said buyer.

Will this change things?  A lot of people are hoping it will.  I am one of them but the pessimist in me is saying do not count on it.